D5.9. Zero In On the Critical Decade - Insights from the Latest IPCC Reports on the Paris Agreement, 1.5 C, and Climate Impacts

D5.8. Zero In On Near-Term Warming and Our Chances of Staying Within 1.5 C

CONSTRAIN Global Stocktake COP27 Poster Submission

CONSTRAIN Report 2021 Figure 5: Comparison of 21st century global mean temperature change for concentration- and emissions-driven emulator runs under the same very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9)

CONSTRAIN Report 2021 Figure 3: Annual fossil & industrial CO2 emissions and projected global mean temperature trajectory, central estimate and very likely (5-95% model) range, relative to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) of the original MAGICC7 climate emulator experiment

CONSTRAIN Report 2021 Figure 4: “Climate wheels” showing the probabilities of staying below 1.5°C, 1.75°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, and 3°C in the 21st century for the different simple climate model experiments under the same emissions reduction pathway

CONSTRAIN Report 2021 Figure 2: Average decadal warming rates over the next 20 years (2021-2040) by CO2, non-CO2 greenhouse gases including CH4, aerosols and land-use reflectance, for five different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

Pre-COP26 Briefing Note: What exactly is a 1.5°C pathway?

Pre-COP26 Briefing Note: How likely are we to reach 1.5°C in the near future?