Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

ZERO IN Report 3

Our third ZERO IN report shows how the chances of global temperature rise staying within 1.5°C this century could range from around 75% to less than 30%, depending on how the climate system responds.

We therefore need to look at the range of temperature projections provided by climate models, rather than just single best estimates, when assessing our chances of keeping warming below a certain temperature. This doesn’t mean that it will be harder to stay within 1.5°C than we thought – instead, it shows that, alongside different emissions pathways, complex climate processes could lead us to different climate futures.

The overall message is that, instead of focusing on a single estimate of future temperature change, we need to prepare for a range of eventualities. The more we are aware of these eventualities, the better we can plan for what lies ahead.

Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

Zero In Report 2

Our second report zeroes in on a new generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, and the science behind the Paris Agreement's Long Term Temperature Goal (LTTG), highlighting how improved understanding in both areas can help us to better plan for what lies ahead in terms of our future climate.

We also highlight the effect of COVID-19 on climate - although this has so far been negligible, a green recovery could profoundly alter the trajectory of climate change over the next two decades, both slowing down the rate of global warming and getting the world on a 1.5°C pathway.

Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

ZERO IN Report 1

This first CONSTRAIN report zeroes in on the remaining carbon budget as well as projected surface warming rates over the next 20 years. Both topics are vitally important to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Future reports, to be published annually, will provide further information on crucial scientific concepts relevant to the Paris Agreement, as well as background and context on new developments that relate to the science-policy interface.

The downloadable graphics are also presented within the report, alongside a full description.