ZERO IN Report 3
Our third ZERO IN report shows how the chances of global temperature rise staying within 1.5°C this century could range from around 75% to less than 30%, depending on how the climate system responds.
We therefore need to look at the range of temperature projections provided by climate models, rather than just single best estimates, when assessing our chances of keeping warming below a certain temperature. This doesn’t mean that it will be harder to stay within 1.5°C than we thought – instead, it shows that, alongside different emissions pathways, complex climate processes could lead us to different climate futures.
The overall message is that, instead of focusing on a single estimate of future temperature change, we need to prepare for a range of eventualities. The more we are aware of these eventualities, the better we can plan for what lies ahead.