Publications | Constrain

An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint

Ribes et al (2022) Earth System Dynamics doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022

Clear-sky control of anvils in response to increased CO2 or surface warming or volcanic eruptions

Saint-Lu et al (2022) Climate and Atmospheric Science doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00304-z

The role of the North Atlantic oscillation for projections of winter mean precipitation in Europe

McKenna et al (2022) Geophysical Research Letters doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099083

Global warming at near-constant tropospheric relative humidity is supported by observations

Douville et al (2022) Communications Earth and Environment doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00561-z

Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

ZERO IN report 4

Our fourth ZERO IN report looks at how cutting emissions in this critical decade for climate can limit temperature rise and other climate impacts in the near-term. In doing so it provides supporting information on the latest IPCC reports, unpacking the level of action needed to slow down and even halt warming in the coming decades, in line with the Paris Agreement. It also shows how increased ambition and action can limit the worst climate impacts, from floods and cyclones to heatwaves, across the world.

Download Report

Browse Graphics

Download Graphic Figure 1 FIGURE 1: Warming per decade up to 2050 of selected illustrative pathways (sustainable development – SP; low energy demand – LD; renewable energy – Ren; gradual strengthening of current policies – GS; and the reference pathway for moderate action – ModAct).
Download Graphic Figure 2 FIGURE 2: Examples of climate impacts in 2050 as a result of three different global warming levels (blue: 1.5°C; orange: 1.7°C; pink: 1.8°C) in different countries.
Download Graphic Figure 3 FIGURE 3: Central remaining carbon budget estimates for a 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C warming, based on different methodologies, compared to future emissions from planned and existing fossil fuel infrastructure from 2020.
Download Graphic Figure 4 FIGURE 4: Timeline of key science and policy processes. Upper panel: processes under the UNFCCC relating to the Global Stocktake (GST) and NDCs; lower panel: IPCC releases of the AR6 cycle and potential release dates of the main reports of the upcoming IPCC AR7 cycle.
Download Graphic Figure 5 FIGURE 5: Global temperature increase in 2050 compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) of selected illustrative pathways (left panel) and CAT scenarios (right panel).

Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal

Brecha et al (2022) Nature Communications doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1

Impact of Holuhraun volcano aerosols on clouds in cloud-system-resolving simulations

Haghighatnasab et al (2022) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022

Uncertainty in near-term temperature evolution must not obscure assessments of climate mitigation benefits

Lanson et al (2022) Nature Communications doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31425-x

Climate warming mitigation from nationally determined contributions

Fu et a l(2022) Advances in Atmospheric Sciences doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1396-8

Errors in simple climate model emulations of past and future global temperature change

Jackson et al (2022) Geophysical Research Letters doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098808