Zero in on remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates

Zero In Report 2

Our second report zeroes in on a new generation of climate models, known as CMIP6, and the science behind the Paris Agreement's Long Term Temperature Goal (LTTG), highlighting how improved understanding in both areas can help us to better plan for what lies ahead in terms of our future climate.

We also highlight the effect of COVID-19 on climate - although this has so far been negligible, a green recovery could profoundly alter the trajectory of climate change over the next two decades, both slowing down the rate of global warming and getting the world on a 1.5°C pathway.


About Constrain

The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C, whilst pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. However, predicting how the climate will change over the next 20-50 years, as well as defining the emissions pathways that will set and keep the world on track, requires a better understanding of how several human and natural factors will affect the climate in coming decades. These include how atmospheric aerosols affect the Earth's radiation budget, and the roles of clouds and oceans in driving climate change.

The EU-funded CONSTRAIN project, a consortium of 14 European partners, is developing a better understanding of these variables, feeding them into climate models to reduce uncertainties, and creating improved climate projections for the next 20-50 years on regional as well as global scales. In doing so, CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of existing knowledge from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) as well as other Horizon 2020 and European Research Council projects.